Matt Josephs Matt Josephs
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NFL Total on Eagles v. Falcons

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Morgan State vs James Madison
OVER 43 -120 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Morgan State disappointed me immensely in week one as they lost 46-3 to the lowly Bowling Green Falcons. The Bears were outgained 620-70 in that one as BG did whatever they wanted in this one. Morgan St is coached by Tyrone Wheatley and they are supposed to be going to a more uptempo offense. This team is coming off a bye week giving them some time to tinker with things a little bit. Last year, this team played two CAA squads and lost 36-10 to Towson and 30-27 to Albany. James Madison is way better then both of them and has a highly potent offense led by Ben DiNucci and Solomon Vanhorse. They lost 20-13 to West Virginia in Morgantown, but then bounced back to beat St. Francis of PA 44-7. The Dukes want to play uptempo and get things going with their talent advantage. At home in 2018 this team played games with scores of 73-7 and 51-0 as well as 48-31. I think the Dukes can do a lot of the heavy lifting here on this total and we see something like 45-3 or something like that. Morgan State is no match. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
USC vs BYU
UNDER 56½ -109 Lost
$109.0
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This is so odd that the total is this high. Looking at BYU, they lost 30-12 at home against Utah and then they beat Tennessee 29-26 in double overtime on the road. Zach Wilson is an ugly quarterback who just hasn't done a lot this season. He didn't get his first touchdown until overtime last week. The Cougars defense has been pretty solid so that's a good thing for this wager. On the other side, you have a USC team that beat Stanford 45-20 with Kedon Slovis under center. Slovis is a rookie who did a lot in his first start. Now he's going to head to a hostile atmosphere where I think he struggles a little bit. The team beat Fresno State 31-23 at home in week one. They've got a huge game at home against Utah next Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue. I don't mind this Trojans defense in this matchup. I just think this one is way too high. Give me the under in this one. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Furman vs Virginia Tech
Furman
+21 -120 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

I have not been impressed with Virginia Tech yet this season despite a 1-1 record. The Hokies lost 35-28 at Boston College in a game that saw the defense struggle to make any stops. They held AJ Dillon in check with under 100 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Game two saw the ultimate revenge angle with Old Dominion coming to town after Tech was embarrassed there last year. They only won 31-17 in a contest that saw another underwhelming effort. Ryan Willis has been pretty good as quarterback, but Damon Hazelton is injured and dealing with a hamstring injury. On the other side, you've got Furman who covered for me last week against Georgia State. The Paladins have a really good offense scoring 46 on Charleston Southern and 42 on the Panthers. Of course, the defense is an issue for me and the fact that they are playing a second straight FBS opponent is concerning as well. Still, as long as this stays above three touchdowns, I think they are a very live dog. The atmosphere may not be the best because of another noon kickoff. I just need a few Furman stops and think they can do it. Give me the FCS squad. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Bethune-Cookman vs Miami-FL
OVER 56 -120 Won
$100
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Miami has to be quite ornery after starting out the year 0-2 against Florida and North Carolina. The Hurricane defense has not lived up to it's highly touted levels from the preseason allowing 24 to the Gators and 28 to the Tar Heels. Jarren Williams should have all the time in the world in this one and if he does, he'll connect plenty to KJ Osborn and Jeff Thomas out wide. Heck, we could see Tate Martell do something as well. Last year in the FCS game, the Canes won 77-0 over Savannah State as a 60 point favorite. Two years ago they played this Bethune Cookman team to a 41-13 game in week one. The Wildcats beat Jackson State 36-15 in week one and this is a team last year that played two FBS opponents. On September 15th they lost 49-28 to Florida Atlantic then took on Nebraska just over a month later falling 45-9 on the road. Akevious Williams is an intriguing quarterback with several linemen and receivers back. The defense is good for a MEAC level, but this is a step up. I find it hard to believe that Miami doesn't go nuts and probably go over the total themselves. This one should get really really ugly. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Memphis vs South Alabama
OVER 57½ -108 Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

South Alabama has played well so far this season keeping it close with Nebraska in week one 35-21. In week two the Jaguars bounced back and beat Jackson State 37-14. I like Cephus Johnson at quarterback as he's got a lot of raw talent and in the case of overs, he can throw the occasional interception. This offense has eight returning starters. Last year when the Jags took a step up they lost 55-13 to Oklahoma State and 52-35 to these Memphis Tigers. Memphis is 2-0 with a 15-10 win over Ole Miss followed by a 58-24 victory over Southern. There's no questioning this offense with Brady White under center and Damontie Coxie out wide. I'm not thrilled to be without Patrick Taylor for this one at running back, but I think this team is very capable of putting up some points without him. I think this one is an over as both teams are capable of putting up some points. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Air Force vs Colorado
Air Force
+4 -115 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

I really like the spot here for Air Force. The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for Colorado after a 48-7 win over Colgate in week one. Air Force runs a really solid triple option with Donald Hammond at quarterback. He's been in the system and has some decent weapons around him in the backfield. Reading a lot of the quotes coming from the team that say they are pretty confident entering this one. Mountain West teams have won seven of their last 10 against the PAC-12. Air Force has a pretty solid defense and went 3-1-1 against the spread on the road as an underdog last year. Colorado is 2-0 and is coming off the highly emotional win over rival Nebraska in overtime. They put a lot into this game and received a ton of accolades for the victory. Really if you break it down, this team wants to throw it and throw it some more with Montez and Laviska Shenault. The Buffaloes have a road trip to Arizona State up next. I think if they aren't ready, the road team can win this one outright. Give me the Air Force. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Florida vs Kentucky
UNDER 50 -109 Tie
Play Type: Premium

The Gators are coming off a 45-0 home win over UT Martin as the team built off the week one win over Miami 24-20. We saw how good this defense has been and how inconsistent the offense is with Feleipe Franks. Good thing for them is that the D has been fantastic. Last year the Wildcats snapped a long losing streak to UF with a 27-16 road win. That team relied a lot on Benny Snell who is now in the NFL. The current version of UK took a major hit once they lost Terry Wilson at quarterback. In steps Troy transfer Sawyer Smith who has some ability but is nowhere near as good as Wilson. The Gators are leading the nation in sacks so he could constantly be on the run. I kinda like this Wildcats defense as well. I think this one is a bit lower scoring and I'd even consider looking at the Kentucky team total under as I think they struggle to get to double digits. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Norfolk State vs Coastal Carolina
Norfolk State
+27 -120 at 5Dimes
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

This is the second time that I've tapped the Spartans this season after they covered in a close to loss to Old Dominion way back in week one. This is a veteran bunch who is led by a very good quarterback in Juwan Carter. Last week Carter threw for four touchdowns in a 44-21 win over Virginia State who is a level below NSU. This team has some solid weapons and not the worst defense in the world. Back in week one they lost 24-21 to ODU and showed that they could go punch for punch with them. Coastal Carolina is 1-1 losing 30-23 to Eastern Michigan at home in week one. In week two they went to Kansas to win 12-7 in a contest that I'm sure they are really excited about. This offense has been pretty underwhelming this season. Last year the Chanticleers won 58-21 at Campbell. This team has not covered their last three games as a home favorite. This is a rather large number. Give me the FCS squad. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 14, 2019
Akron vs Central Michigan
Akron
+3 -105 at jazz
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Central Michigan enters this one coming off a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin in a contest that saw them lose quarterback Quinten Dormady and running back Jonathan Ward who are their two best weapons. David Moore will start at quarterback while sophomore Kobe Lewis will work with the first team. Moore came in relief and threw for one yard against the Badgers. CMU just doesn't have the offensive ability to overcome something like this and they have issues on defense. On the other side, it's been a rough start for the Zips who lost to UAB at home and Illinois on the road. Still, there are many picking Akron to win their half of the MAC led by Kato Nelson under center. They played CMU last year and beat them 17-10 at home. The Zips are on the road so that's not great, but I can't imagine there's too much of a homefield advantage for the Chips. 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 15, 2019
Patriots vs Dolphins
OVER 48½ -104 Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Premium

The Patriots are huge favorites in this one as they travel to Miami to play a Dolphins team that just allowed 59 points to the Ravens. This is a contest that may mean a little more to the Pats because it's been a house of horrors for them in past years. New England is in a name your score situation here and usually they just go nuts on opponents. With Antonio Brown coming into the fold, the team has another weapon for teams to worry about. They beat the Steelers 33-3 last week. I don't know if Miami will score here, but I could totally see the Pats winning this 49-0 and it going over the total.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 15, 2019
Cowboys vs Redskins
UNDER 46½ -107 Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Premium

It's an NFC East game as the Redskins host the Cowboys. The Skins lost 32-27 to the Eagles last time out after going up 20-7 at halftime. Their offense found some early success that I don't think they will find against one of the better defenses in the league. Adrian Peterson replaces Derrius Guice at running back and Case Keenum's weapons are really young. The defense will be without Jonathan Allen and maybe a pair of corners as well. On the Dallas side, they did what they had to against the Giants winning 35-17. Dak Prescott had a really good game, but New York isn't exactly much of a challenge. The Cowboys have gone under in 11 of their last 17 on the road. The Skins lost at home last year to Dallas 20-17 and has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four meetings with the Boys. I think this one is an under. I can see something like 31-10 as the Cowboys move up and down the field on Washington. 

SERVICE BIO

My name is Matt. I've been handicapping sports for many years and I'm not going to dazzle you with numbers and percentages. Just know that when you buy my picks, you get someone who looks at all the angles and does the work to get you winners. When it comes to the college sports, I specialize on the mid-major/non power five games.